{"id":39227,"date":"2021-06-04T01:55:00","date_gmt":"2021-06-03T21:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/?p=39227"},"modified":"2021-06-04T01:55:03","modified_gmt":"2021-06-03T21:55:03","slug":"80-ild%c9%99n-sonra-yer-uzund%c9%99-insanlarin-sayi-daha-artmayacaq","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/?p=39227","title":{"rendered":"80 \u0130LD\u018fN SONRA YER \u00dcZ\u00dcND\u018f \u0130NSANLARIN SAYI DAHA ARTMAYACAQ"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>THE ATLANTIC. Afrika \u0259n s\u0131x qit\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7evril\u0259c\u0259k, islam \u0259n \u00e7ox yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f din olacaq, ya\u015fl\u0131 insanlar\u0131n say\u0131 is\u0259 xeyli artacaq. Bu bar\u0259d\u0259 \u201cThe Atlantic\u201d m\u0259lumat verir.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130nsanlar\u0131n Yer planetind\u0259 m\u00f6vcud olma\u011fa ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 andan b\u0259ri b\u0259\u015f\u0259riyy\u0259tin c\u0259rg\u0259si son d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259 l\u0259ng art\u0131b. Eram\u0131zdan \u0259vv\u0259l 10-cu minilikd\u0259 d\u00fcnyada insan n\u00f6v\u00fcn\u00fcn sad\u0259c\u0259 4 milyon n\u00fcmay\u0259nd\u0259si ya\u015fay\u0131b. 10 min ild\u0259n sonra bu r\u0259q\u0259m 190 milyona \u00e7at\u0131b. H\u0259tta 1800-c\u00fc ild\u0259 bel\u0259 planetin \u0259halisinin sat\u0131 milyarda \u00e7atmay\u0131b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lakin sonra inan\u0131lmaz s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131\u015f ba\u015f verib. Bu s\u0131r\u00e7ay\u0131\u015f tibb, sanitariya v\u0259 \u0259rzaq m\u0259hsullar\u0131n\u0131n istehsal sah\u0259sind\u0259 \u0259ld\u0259 olunan nailiyy\u0259tl\u0259r say\u0259sind\u0259 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olub. 1900-c\u00fc ild\u0259 art\u0131q Yer \u00fcz\u00fcnd\u0259 1,65 milyard insan ya\u015fay\u0131b. 2000-ci ild\u0259 is\u0259 d\u00fcnya \u0259halisinin say\u0131 6 milyard\u0131 \u00fcst\u0259l\u0259yib. C\u0259mi 20 ild\u0259n sonra qlobal populyasiya 7,7 milyarda \u00e7at\u0131b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ancaq tezlikl\u0259 (\u0259n az\u0131ndan b\u0259\u015f\u0259r tarixi kontekstind\u0259) Yer \u0259halisi daha artmayacaq. BMT-nin t\u0259qdim etdiyi son hesabata \u0259saslanan demoqraflar\u0131n fikrinc\u0259, bu, t\u0259xmin\u0259n 2100-c\u00fc il\u0259 t\u0259sad\u00fcf ed\u0259c\u0259k. H\u0259min vaxtad\u0259k planetd\u0259 insanlar\u0131n say\u0131 t\u0259xmin\u0259n 11 milyarda b\u0259rab\u0259r olacaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>B\u0259\u015f\u0259riyy\u0259t ke\u00e7mi\u015fd\u0259 art\u0131q bel\u0259 bir halla \u00fczl\u0259\u015fib. Hesablamalara \u0259sas\u0259n, \u201cqara \u00f6l\u00fcm\u201d t\u0259xmin\u0259n 200 milyon insan\u0131n h\u0259yat\u0131na son qoyub. Bu d\u0259f\u0259 h\u0259r \u015fey ba\u015fqa c\u00fcr c\u0259r\u0259yan ed\u0259c\u0259k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cKe\u00e7mi\u015fd\u0259 bir \u00e7ox insan\u0131n \u00f6l\u00fcml\u0259 \u00fczl\u0259\u015fm\u0259si populyasiyan\u0131n azalmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olurdu\u201d, &#8212; San Diyeqo Universitetind\u0259n iqtisad\u00e7\u0131 Tom Voql (Tom S. Vogl) deyir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bel\u0259 ki, bu d\u0259f\u0259 yoxsul \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 qad\u0131nlar aras\u0131nda g\u0259lir v\u0259 t\u0259hsil s\u0259viyy\u0259sinin artmas\u0131 onlar\u0131n daha az u\u015faq d\u00fcnyaya g\u0259tirm\u0259si s\u0259b\u0259b olacaq. Proqnozlarda h\u0259mi\u015f\u0259 qeyri-m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nliyin pay\u0131 olur. Voql iddia edir ki, dig\u0259r sosial-iqtisadi g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rl\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 \u0259hali il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 proqnozlar ad\u0259t\u0259n \u201ca\u015fa\u011f\u0131-yuxar\u0131 d\u0259qiq olur\u201d. Ona g\u00f6r\u0259 ki, t\u0259dqiqat\u00e7\u0131lar hal-haz\u0131rda d\u00fcnyada ya\u015fayan insanlar\u0131n say\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 onlar\u0131n ya\u015f\u0131n\u0131 d\u0259qiq bilirl\u0259r, n\u00f6vb\u0259ti ill\u0259rd\u0259 n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r u\u015fa\u011f\u0131n d\u00fcnyaya g\u0259l\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259yini m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n d\u0259qiqlikl\u0259 s\u00f6yl\u0259y\u0259 bilirl\u0259r. Voqlun s\u00f6zl\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, do\u011fum s\u0259viyy\u0259si bu v\u0259 ya ba\u015fqa \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lan s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259n f\u0259rql\u0259ns\u0259 bel\u0259, \u201cn\u00f6vb\u0259ti 100 ild\u0259 d\u00fcnya \u0259halisinin \u00f6z pikin\u0259 \u00e7ataca\u011f\u0131 fakt\u0131n\u0131 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k\u201d. 80 il \u0259rzind\u0259 insanlar\u0131n say\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259ntil\u0259ri r\u0259hb\u0259r tutaraq ba\u015f ver\u0259c\u0259k geni\u015f demoqrafik d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259rd\u0259n b\u0259hs etm\u0259k olar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cD\u00fcnya populyasiyas\u0131 sabitl\u0259\u015f\u0259nd\u0259 Afrika \u0259hali d\u0259yi\u015fikliyi bax\u0131m\u0131ndan d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u0259n b\u00f6y\u00fck regionuna \u00e7evril\u0259c\u0259k. \u0130slam \u0259n geni\u015f yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f din olacaq\u201d, &#8212; dey\u0259 ekspert \u0259lav\u0259 edib.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br>\u00dcmumilikd\u0259 Yer \u0259halisi qocalacaq. BMT-nin hesabat\u0131na \u0259saslanaraq qeyd etm\u0259k olar ki, 2020-2100-c\u00fc il\u0259d\u0259k 80 v\u0259 daha ya\u015fl\u0131 insanlar\u0131n say\u0131 146 milyondan 881 milyona \u00e7atacaq. Bu zaman analoji d\u00f6vrd\u0259 orta ya\u015f h\u0259ddi 31-d\u0259n 42-\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Voql qeyd edir ki, bu c\u00fcr d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259r bir \u00f6lk\u0259 \u00e7\u0259r\u00e7iv\u0259sind\u0259 ba\u015f ver\u0259nd\u0259 ad\u0259t\u0259n \u201csiyas\u0259td\u0259 b\u00f6y\u00fck probleml\u0259r\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259b olur\u201d. Bu ssenariy\u0259 \u0259sas\u0259n, i\u015f qabiliyy\u0259tli insanlar getdikc\u0259 saylar\u0131 artan pensiya\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 t\u0259min etm\u0259li olur. V\u0259 bunu h\u0259m pensiya proqramlar\u0131 v\u0259 fondlar\u0131n\u0131n doldurulmas\u0131 kimi ictimai formada, h\u0259m d\u0259 ail\u0259 t\u0259s\u0259rr\u00fcrat\u0131 s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irm\u0259k laz\u0131m g\u0259lir. \u00c7\u00fcnki ail\u0259nin g\u0259nc \u00fczvl\u0259ri ya\u015fl\u0131lara qulluq etm\u0259li olur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>H\u0259r bir \u00f6lk\u0259 bu probleml\u0259 \u00fczl\u0259\u015f\u0259c\u0259yi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ya\u015fl\u0131lar\u0131n az oldu\u011fu \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259n \u00f6z\u00fc il\u0259 \u0259m\u0259k qabiliyy\u0259tli g\u0259nc insanlar\u0131 g\u0259tir\u0259n immiqrasiya qocalma dinamikas\u0131n\u0131 l\u0259ngid\u0259 bil\u0259r. Ancaq m\u00fcasir siyas\u0259t t\u0259sdiql\u0259yir ki, imiqrasiyan\u0131 q\u0259bul etm\u0259k el\u0259 d\u0259 asan deyil. Bu problemi yum\u015faltmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r daha \u015f\u0259ffaf yollara \u0259l ata bil\u0259r: iqtisadiyyat\u0131 geni\u015fl\u0259d\u0259, h\u0259m\u00e7inin \u0259m\u0259k bazar\u0131nda qad\u0131nlar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn daha \u00e7ox imkan yarada bil\u0259r. Bu da pensiya\u00e7\u0131larla i\u015f\u00e7i q\u00fcvv\u0259nin aras\u0131ndak\u0131 nisb\u0259ti d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259 bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>M\u0259qal\u0259d\u0259 deyilir ki, populyasiya tendensiyalar\u0131 XXI \u0259srd\u0259 ail\u0259 h\u0259yat\u0131n\u0131n teksturunu da d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259c\u0259k. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n m\u00fcxt\u0259lif gu\u015f\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 do\u011fum s\u0259viyy\u0259si a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fd\u00fckd\u0259 ail\u0259 \u00fczvl\u0259rinin say\u0131 azalacaq. Bu o dem\u0259kdir ki, qarda\u015f-bac\u0131s\u0131z u\u015faqlara daha \u00e7ox rast g\u0259lin\u0259c\u0259k, valideynl\u0259r h\u0259r bir u\u015fa\u011fa daha \u00e7ox resurs v\u0259 diqq\u0259t investisiya ed\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cM\u0259d\u0259niyy\u0259t el\u0259 bir istiqam\u0259td\u0259 ir\u0259lil\u0259yir ki, geni\u015f deyil, daha \u00e7ox \u201catom\u201d ail\u0259l\u0259r olacaq. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, Afrikada geni\u015f ail\u0259 sistemi m\u00f6vcuddur. Burada insanlar \u0259mi q\u0131zlar\u0131 v\u0259 \u0259mi o\u011flanlar\u0131, daha uzaq qohumlar\u0131 il\u0259 birlikd\u0259 ya\u015fay\u0131rlar\u201d, &#8212; dey\u0259 Kornell Universitetind\u0259n sosiologiya professor Parfati Yeloundu-Yeneyci (Parfait Eloundou-Enyegue) m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259y\u0259 ayd\u0131nl\u0131q g\u0259tirir. Ekspert \u0259lav\u0259 edir ki, bu c\u00fcr model \u00f6z yerini ki\u00e7ik ail\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 ver\u0259c\u0259k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bunun m\u00fcxt\u0259lif n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri olacaq. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, emosional n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri. \u00c7\u00fcnki qohumlar\u0131 az olan insanlara ail\u0259 d\u0259st\u0259yi tapmaq \u00e7\u0259tin olacaq. Maliyy\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fikliyi d\u0259 olacaq. Maliyy\u0259 \u00f6hd\u0259likl\u0259rinin b\u00f6l\u00fc\u015fd\u00fcr\u00fclm\u0259sind\u0259 b\u00f6y\u00fck ail\u0259l\u0259r daha effektivdir. Ona g\u00f6r\u0259 ki, qohumlar bir-birl\u0259rin\u0259 k\u00f6m\u0259k ed\u0259 bilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br>\u201cAil\u0259l\u0259r balacala\u015fd\u0131qca, iqtisadi rifahda m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n d\u0259yi\u015fiklik haqq\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u0259li olaca\u011f\u0131q: riskl\u0259rin \u00f6hd\u0259sind\u0259n nec\u0259 g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259yik?\u201d \u2013 dey\u0259 ekspert sonda vur\u011fulay\u0131b<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>THE ATLANTIC. Afrika \u0259n s\u0131x qit\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7evril\u0259c\u0259k, islam \u0259n \u00e7ox yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f din olacaq, ya\u015fl\u0131 insanlar\u0131n say\u0131 is\u0259 xeyli artacaq. Bu bar\u0259d\u0259 \u201cThe Atlantic\u201d m\u0259lumat<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":39229,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39227","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-arasdirma"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39227","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=39227"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39227\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39230,"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39227\/revisions\/39230"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/39229"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=39227"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=39227"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=39227"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}