{"id":76897,"date":"2022-07-25T01:55:08","date_gmt":"2022-07-24T21:55:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/?p=76897"},"modified":"2022-07-25T18:07:07","modified_gmt":"2022-07-25T14:07:07","slug":"corc-fridman-novb%c9%99ti-100-ild%c9%99ki-proqnozlari-turk-xofu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/?p=76897","title":{"rendered":"Corc Fridman «N\u00f6vb\u0259ti 100 il»d\u0259ki proqnozlar\u0131 — T\u00fcrk xofu"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Corc Fridman Ameriakan\u0131n apar\u0131c\u0131 beyin m\u0259rk\u0259zl\u0259rind\u0259n biri say\u0131lan Strafor qlobal t\u0259hlil v\u0259 m\u0259lumat m\u0259rk\u0259zinin icra\u00e7\u0131 direktoru olub.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


Startfor xarici siyas\u0259t v\u0259 k\u0259\u015ffiyyat sah\u0259sind\u0259 ara\u015fd\u0131rmalar aparan nufuzlu m\u0259rk\u0259z hesab olunur v\u0259 onun haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesabatlar apar\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fcnya paytaxtlar\u0131nda n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131n\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

«N\u00f6vb\u0259ti 100 il», «Amerikanl\u0131n gizli m\u00fcharib\u0259si, «G\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k m\u00fcharib\u0259l\u0259r » kimi kitabalar\u0131n m\u00fc\u0259llifi olan doktor Fridman nufuzlu t\u0259hlil\u00e7i hesab olunur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Onun 2010-cu il n\u0259\u015fr olunmu\u015f «N\u00f6vb\u0259ti 100 il» kitab\u0131ndan b\u0259zi se\u00e7m\u0259l\u0259ri sizl\u0259rin diqq\u0259tin\u0259 \u00e7atd\u0131r\u0131r\u0131q.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n


\u0130kinci soyuq m\u00fcharib\u0259<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


2010-cu ill\u0259rd\u0259 AB\u015e v\u0259 \u0130slam fundamentalistl\u0259ri aras\u0131nda qar\u015f\u0131durma sakitl\u0259\u015f\u0259c\u0259k. AB\u015e v\u0259 Rusiya aras\u0131nda ikinci soyuq m\u00fcharib\u0259 ba\u015flayacaq, birincisi q\u0259d\u0259r b\u00f6y\u00fck deyil, daha q\u0131sa olacaq. Bu, Rusiyan\u0131n M\u0259rk\u0259zi v\u0259 \u015e\u0259rqi Avropada \u00f6z t\u0259sir dair\u0259sini geni\u015fl\u0259ndirm\u0259k, eyni zamanda Rusiyan\u0131n h\u0259rbi potensial\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmaq c\u0259hdl\u0259ri il\u0259 xarakteriz\u0259 olunacaq. Bu m\u00fcdd\u0259t \u0259rzind\u0259 Rusiya ordusu AB\u015e-a regional problem yaradacaq. AB\u015e M\u0259rk\u0259zi v\u0259 \u015e\u0259rqi Avropan\u0131n b\u0259zi \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rinin yax\u0131n m\u00fctt\u0259fiqin\u0259 \u00e7evril\u0259 bil\u0259r v\u0259 bu m\u00fcdd\u0259t \u0259rzind\u0259 onlar Rusiyan\u0131n geosiyasi t\u0259hdidl\u0259rin\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 f\u0259al \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 m\u00fcbariz\u0259 aparacaqlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Fridman hesab edir ki, bunlar Pol\u015fa, \u00c7exiya, Slovakiya, Macar\u0131stan v\u0259 Rum\u0131niya olacaq. T\u0259xmin\u0259n 2015-ci ild\u0259 Pol\u015fa r\u0259hb\u0259rliyi \u015e\u0259rqi Avropa \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259n ibar\u0259t \u201cPol\u015fa Bloku\u201d yaradacaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7in iqtisadiyyat\u0131 d\u0259f\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 artacaq v\u0259 b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rin \u00dcDM-ni \u00f6t\u0259c\u0259k. \u00c7in, h\u0259m\u00e7inin 2040-c\u0131 ill\u0259rd\u0259 Rusiya v\u0259 Hindistan kimi dig\u0259r d\u00fcnya superg\u00fccl\u0259rin\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 qoyulacaq h\u0259rbi v\u0259 s\u0259naye potensial\u0131n\u0131 inki\u015faf etdir\u0259c\u0259k. Geosiyasi \u00fcf\u00fcqd\u0259 n\u00f6vb\u0259 il\u0259 yeni ulduzlar y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k: Yaponiya, T\u00fcrkiy\u0259, Pol\u015fa, Meksika.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


Rusiya 2020-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259 postsovet m\u0259kan\u0131na n\u0259zar\u0259ti b\u0259rpa etm\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7al\u0131\u015facaq, lakin bundan sonra daha g\u00fccl\u00fc d\u00f6vl\u0259tl\u0259rl\u0259 r\u0259qab\u0259t\u0259 tab g\u0259tir\u0259 bilm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 par\u00e7alanacaq v\u0259 tamamil\u0259 da\u011f\u0131lacaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Rusiya v\u0259 \u00c7inin par\u00e7alanmas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


2020-ci ill\u0259rin \u0259vv\u0259ll\u0259rind\u0259 yeni Soyuq M\u00fcharib\u0259 el\u0259 bir vaxtda ba\u015fa \u00e7atacaq ki, iqtisadi t\u0259hrifl\u0259r v\u0259 Rusiyaya qar\u015f\u0131 siyasi t\u0259zyiql\u0259r, Rusiyan\u0131n azalan \u0259halisi, \u00fcst\u0259g\u0259l z\u0259if infrastrukturu il\u0259 birlikd\u0259 Rusiya federal h\u00f6kum\u0259tinin tamamil\u0259 da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131na g\u0259tirib \u00e7\u0131xaracaq, bu proses SSR\u0130-nin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131 il\u0259 eyni \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 ba\u015f ver\u0259c\u0259k. Ba\u015fqa \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r, ke\u00e7mi\u015f Sovet \u0130ttifaq\u0131 respublikalar\u0131 da da\u011f\u0131lacaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u0259xmin\u0259n eyni zamanda materik \u00c7in (\u00c7XR) siyasi v\u0259 m\u0259d\u0259ni c\u0259h\u0259td\u0259n par\u00e7alanacaq. Kitabda \u00c7ind\u0259 \u00e7ox s\u00fcr\u0259tli iqtisadi inki\u015faf\u0131n \u00c7in c\u0259miyy\u0259tind\u0259ki b\u0259rab\u0259rsizlik s\u0259b\u0259bind\u0259n sosial g\u0259rginliy\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259b olaca\u011f\u0131 iddia edilir. \u00c7XR-d\u0259 regional g\u0259rginlik \u00e7i\u00e7\u0259kl\u0259n\u0259n sahil b\u00f6lg\u0259l\u0259ri il\u0259 yoxsul hinterland aras\u0131nda artacaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Fridman iki m\u00fcmk\u00fcn ssenari verir: birincisi, \u00f6lk\u0259ni par\u00e7alanmadan saxlamaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn h\u00f6kum\u0259t xarici maraqlar\u0131n t\u0259sirini azaldacaq v\u0259 ya l\u0259\u011fv ed\u0259c\u0259k v\u0259 \u201cd\u0259mir yumruq\u201d g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc t\u0259tbiq ed\u0259c\u0259k;
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ikincisi odur ki, \u00c7in t\u0259dric\u0259n muxtar \u0259yal\u0259tl\u0259r\u0259 par\u00e7alanacaq, m\u0259rk\u0259zi h\u00f6kum\u0259t is\u0259 \u00f6z real g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn b\u00f6y\u00fck hiss\u0259sini t\u0259dric\u0259n itir\u0259c\u0259k. Kitabda m\u00fc\u0259llif t\u0259kid edir ki, t\u0259dric\u0259n par\u00e7alanma \u0259n \u00e7ox ehtimal olunan ssenaridir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


2020-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259 materik \u00c7inin par\u00e7alanmas\u0131, 2030-cu ill\u0259rd\u0259 is\u0259 Rusiya Federasiyas\u0131n\u0131n da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131 Avrasiyan\u0131 xaos i\u00e7in \u00e7\u0259k\u0259c\u0259k. \u018frazid\u0259 t\u0259sir dair\u0259l\u0259rini yenid\u0259n b\u00f6l\u00fc\u015fd\u00fcrm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn yeni s\u0259lahiyy\u0259tl\u0259r meydana \u00e7\u0131xacaq v\u0259 \u0259ks\u0259r hallarda regional liderl\u0259r \u201cd\u00f6y\u00fc\u015fs\u00fcz\u201d t\u0259slim olacaqlar. Rusiyada \u00c7e\u00e7enistan v\u0259 dig\u0259r m\u00fcs\u0259lman b\u00f6lg\u0259l\u0259ri, el\u0259c\u0259 d\u0259 Uzaq \u015e\u0259rq m\u00fcst\u0259qillik qazanacaq. Finlandiya Kareliyan\u0131, Rum\u0131niya is\u0259 Moldovan\u0131 \u00f6z\u00fcn\u0259 birl\u0259\u015fdir\u0259c\u0259k. Tibet Hindistan\u0131n k\u00f6m\u0259yi il\u0259 m\u00fcst\u0259qillik qazanacaq, Tayvan (ROC) materik \u00c7ind\u0259 t\u0259sirini geni\u015fl\u0259ndir\u0259c\u0259k, Amerika Birl\u0259\u015fmi\u015f \u015etatlar\u0131 v\u0259 Avropa g\u00fccl\u0259ri Yaponiya il\u0259 birlikd\u0259 \u00c7ind\u0259 regional t\u0259sir dair\u0259l\u0259rini b\u0259rpa ed\u0259c\u0259kl\u0259r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yeni q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259rin meydana \u00e7\u0131xmas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


2020-ci v\u0259 2030-cu ill\u0259rd\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7 \u00f6lk\u0259 \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc elan ed\u0259c\u0259k: T\u00fcrkiy\u0259, Pol\u015fa v\u0259 Yaponiya. T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 ilkin m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259d\u0259 AB\u015e-\u0131n d\u0259st\u0259yi il\u0259 \u00f6z t\u0259sir dair\u0259sini geni\u015fl\u0259ndir\u0259c\u0259k v\u0259 Osmanl\u0131 \u0130mperiyas\u0131 d\u00f6vr\u00fcnd\u0259 oldu\u011fu kimi regional g\u00fcc\u0259 \u00e7evril\u0259c\u0259k. T\u00fcrkiy\u0259nin t\u0259sir dair\u0259si par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f \u0259r\u0259b d\u00fcnyas\u0131na, el\u0259c\u0259 d\u0259 \u015fimala Rusiyaya v\u0259 ke\u00e7mi\u015f Sovet \u0130ttifaq\u0131n\u0131n dig\u0259r respublikalar\u0131na q\u0259d\u0259r uzanacaq. \u0130srail y\u0259qin ki, AB\u015e-\u0131n maraq dair\u0259sind\u0259 olacaq yegan\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259 olacaq, Aral\u0131q d\u0259nizind\u0259 is\u0259 T\u00fcrkiy\u0259nin t\u0259sirind\u0259n k\u0259nar yegan\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259 olacaq. Bu v\u0259 ya dig\u0259r \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 T\u00fcrkiy\u0259y\u0259 g\u00fcz\u0259\u015ft\u0259 getm\u0259y\u0259 m\u0259cbur olacaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Bu arada Yaponiya \u00f6z iqtisadi t\u0259sirini \u00c7in sahil zonas\u0131n\u0131n regionlar\u0131na, Rusiyan\u0131n ke\u00e7mi\u015f Uzaq \u015e\u0259rqin\u0259 v\u0259 Sakit okean adalar\u0131na geni\u015fl\u0259ndir\u0259c\u0259k. Fridman proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r ki, bu m\u00fcdd\u0259t \u0259rzind\u0259 Yaponiya \u00f6z xarici siyas\u0259tini d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259c\u0259k, getdikc\u0259 geosiyasi aqressiv d\u00f6vl\u0259t\u0259 \u00e7evril\u0259c\u0259k. Fridman proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r ki, Yaponiya b\u00fct\u00fcn \u015e\u0259rqi Asiyada regional t\u0259hdidl\u0259r\u0259 cavab verm\u0259y\u0259 qadir h\u0259rbi g\u00fcc yaradacaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


N\u0259hay\u0259t, Pol\u015fa h\u0259rbi alyansa, \u201cPol\u015fa Bloku\u201dna r\u0259hb\u0259rlik etm\u0259y\u0259 davam ed\u0259c\u0259k. Pol\u015fa v\u0259 onun m\u00fctt\u0259fiql\u0259ri \u0259sas q\u00fcvv\u0259 olacaq, Pol\u015fa bu Birliyi b\u0259rpa ed\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259k (Pol\u015fa Krall\u0131\u011f\u0131 v\u0259 Litva B\u00f6y\u00fck Hersoqlu\u011fu Federasiyas\u0131). \u018fh\u0259miyy\u0259tli h\u0259rbi g\u00fcc\u0259 malik olan Pol\u015fa ke\u00e7mi\u015f Avropa Rusiyas\u0131 m\u0259kan\u0131na t\u0259sirini geni\u015fl\u0259ndir\u0259c\u0259k. Eyni zamanda, Volqa \u00e7ay\u0131 vadisinin m\u00fch\u00fcm iqtisadi rayonunda n\u00fcfuzunun yaranmas\u0131 s\u0259b\u0259bind\u0259n T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 il\u0259 r\u0259qab\u0259t aparma\u011fa ba\u015flayacaq. T\u0259xmin\u0259n eyni vaxtda h\u0259rbi kosmik proqramlar meydana \u00e7\u0131xacaq. Dig\u0259r \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 yana\u015f\u0131, Yaponiya v\u0259 T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 d\u0259 kosmosda h\u0259rbi potensial\u0131n\u0131 inki\u015faf etdir\u0259c\u0259k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Artan g\u0259rginlik<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


2020-ci il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r AB\u015e \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fccl\u0259 ittifaqda olacaq: T\u00fcrkiy\u0259, Pol\u015fa v\u0259 Yaponiya (AB\u015e T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 v\u0259 Yaponiya il\u0259 t\u0259xmin\u0259n 75 il ittifaqdad\u0131r). Bununla bel\u0259, \u0130kinci Soyuq M\u00fcharib\u0259 bitdikd\u0259n v\u0259 Rusiyan\u0131n s\u00fcqutundan sonrak\u0131 ill\u0259rd\u0259 AB\u015e \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn v\u0259ziyy\u0259t getdikc\u0259 m\u00fcr\u0259kk\u0259bl\u0259\u015f\u0259c\u0259k, \u00e7\u00fcnki T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 v\u0259 Yaponiya h\u0259rbi g\u00fccl\u0259rini v\u0259 iqtisadi t\u0259sirl\u0259rini geni\u015fl\u0259ndir\u0259c\u0259kl\u0259r v\u0259 yeni regional sferalar yaranacaq. T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 v\u0259 Yaponiyan\u0131n t\u0259siri Amerikan\u0131n maraqlar\u0131n\u0131 t\u0259hdid etm\u0259y\u0259 ba\u015flayacaq. T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 v\u0259 Yaponiyan\u0131n d\u0259niz g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn artmas\u0131 v\u0259 bu m\u0259kanda h\u0259rbi f\u0259aliyy\u0259tl\u0259ri AB\u015e \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn x\u00fcsusil\u0259 narahat olacaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ox\u015far maraqlara malik olan Yaponiya v\u0259 T\u00fcrkiy\u0259, \u00e7ox g\u00fcman ki, 2040-c\u0131 ill\u0259rin sonunda AB\u015e-\u0131n b\u00f6y\u00fck qlobal g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131xmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ittifaq quracaqlar. Potensial qar\u015f\u0131durmalarda Birl\u0259\u015fmi\u015f \u015etatlar \u00e7ox g\u00fcman ki, qurulmu\u015f \u00c7in, Hindistan, birl\u0259\u015fmi\u015f Koreya v\u0259 Britaniya Krall\u0131\u011f\u0131 il\u0259 «Pol\u015fa Bloku» il\u0259 m\u00fctt\u0259fiq olacaq. 2040-c\u0131 ild\u0259 qlobal g\u0259rginlik bu iki ittifaq aras\u0131nda r\u0259qab\u0259td\u0259n as\u0131l\u0131 olacaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Demoqrafik d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259r<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


Kitabda inki\u015faf etmi\u015f \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259, x\u00fcsus\u0259n d\u0259 Avropada onillikl\u0259r boyu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 m\u0259hsuldarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n 21-ci \u0259srin birinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda m\u0259d\u0259ni, sosial v\u0259 siyasi d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259r\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259b olaca\u011f\u0131 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. Bel\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 \u0259m\u0259k qabiliyy\u0259tli \u0259halinin faizinin azalmas\u0131 v\u0259 qocalm\u0131\u015f \u0259halinin faizinin artmas\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 iqtisadi v\u0259 sosial g\u0259rginlikl\u0259r yaranacaq. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259, 2020-ci v\u0259 2030-cu ill\u0259rin onillikl\u0259ri immiqrantlar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn r\u0259qab\u0259tl\u0259 yadda qalacaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


X\u00fcsusil\u0259, AB\u015e immiqrasiya n\u0259zar\u0259tini \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 y\u00fcng\u00fcll\u0259\u015fdir\u0259c\u0259k v\u0259 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn q\u0259d\u0259r \u00e7ox \u0259cn\u0259bini — x\u00fcsusil\u0259 meksikal\u0131lar\u0131 c\u0259lb etm\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7al\u0131\u015facaq. Bununla bel\u0259, \u0259srin sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru haradasa robotlar i\u015f\u00e7il\u0259ri k\u00fctl\u0259vi \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 yerind\u0259n t\u0259rp\u0259d\u0259c\u0259k v\u0259 bunun n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 AB\u015e-da k\u00fctl\u0259vi i\u015fsizlik i\u015f\u00e7i q\u00fcvv\u0259sinin art\u0131ql\u0131\u011f\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olacaq, AB\u015e yenid\u0259n immiqrasiyan\u0131 m\u0259hdudla\u015fd\u0131racaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


III D\u00fcnya M\u00fcharib\u0259si<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


21-ci \u0259srin ortalar\u0131nda, t\u0259xmin\u0259n 2050-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259 AB\u015e, \u201cPol\u015fa Bloku\u201d \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259ri, B\u00f6y\u00fck Britaniya, Hindistan, \u00c7in (m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259 t\u0259r\u0259fl\u0259rind\u0259n biri), T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 v\u0259 Yaponiya (m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259nin dig\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259fi) aras\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc d\u00fcnya m\u00fcharib\u0259si ba\u015flayacaq. Almaniya v\u0259 Fransa sonrak\u0131 m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 v\u0259 Yaponiyan\u0131n t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259 m\u00fcharib\u0259y\u0259 qo\u015fulacaqlar. Fridman m\u00fcharib\u0259nin AB\u015e v\u0259 m\u00fctt\u0259fiql\u0259rin\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 yax\u015f\u0131 \u0259laq\u0259l\u0259ndirilmi\u015f T\u00fcrkiy\u0259-Yapon h\u00fccumu il\u0259 ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 qeyd edir. Bir se\u00e7im olaraq, konkret tarix v\u0259 vaxt 24 noyabr 2050-ci il, saat 17:00 se\u00e7il\u0259 bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00fcrkiy\u0259-Yapon ittifaq\u0131n\u0131n ilkin z\u0259rb\u0259si AB\u015e v\u0259 m\u00fctt\u0259fiql\u0259rinin kosmosdak\u0131 h\u0259rbi imkanlar\u0131n\u0131 sars\u0131dacaq. T\u00fcrkiy\u0259-Yapon ittifaq\u0131 AB\u015e-dan superg\u00fcc kimi T\u00fcrkiy\u0259-Yapon ittifaq\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131nda olmas\u0131n\u0131 t\u0259l\u0259b ed\u0259r\u0259k dan\u0131\u015f\u0131qlara girm\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7al\u0131\u015facaq. Lakin AB\u015e \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259ri r\u0259dd edib, Avrasiya \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259 t\u00fcrk v\u0259 Yaponiya hegemonlu\u011fu fakt\u0131n\u0131 q\u0259bul etm\u0259kd\u0259n imtina ed\u0259r\u0259k m\u00fcharib\u0259y\u0259 qo\u015fulacaq. AB\u015e \u0259sg\u0259rl\u0259rini iflic ed\u0259n ilk z\u0259rb\u0259 T\u00fcrkiy\u0259-Yapon ittifaq\u0131na taktiki \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck ver\u0259c\u0259k. Bu, T\u00fcrkiy\u0259-Yapon ittifaq\u0131n\u0131n qalib g\u0259lm\u0259sin\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259b olacaq v\u0259 AB\u015e-\u0131 art\u0131q d\u00fcnyan\u0131n yegan\u0259 superg\u00fcc\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 etiraf etm\u0259y\u0259 v\u0259 onu dig\u0259r superg\u00fccl\u0259rl\u0259 b\u0259rab\u0259r tutma\u011fa m\u0259cbur ed\u0259c\u0259k. Lakin Fridman ikinci variant\u0131 da n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259n ke\u00e7irir: birincisi, t\u00fcrkl\u0259r, yaponlar v\u0259 almanlar (Q\u0259rbi Avropa d\u00f6vl\u0259tl\u0259rind\u0259n birin\u0259 misal olaraq) qalib m\u00fcharib\u0259l\u0259r apar\u0131rlar, lakin n\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 polyaklar AB\u015e-\u0131n d\u0259st\u0259yi il\u0259 Adriatik d\u0259nizind\u0259 h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 qalib g\u0259lir v\u0259 n\u00fcfuz qazan\u0131r, buna baxmayaraq, Fridman bel\u0259 bir n\u0259tic\u0259ni m\u00fcmk\u00fcns\u00fcz hesab edir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


\u018fsas d\u00f6y\u00fc\u015f silahlar\u0131 ekzoskeletli yeni tipli zirehl\u0259 t\u0259chiz edilmi\u015f uzaq m\u0259nzilli s\u0259sd\u0259n s\u00fcr\u0259tli t\u0259yyar\u0259l\u0259r v\u0259 piyadalar olacaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kosmosa (g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr, Yer\u0259 yax\u0131n) kosmosa n\u0259zar\u0259t h\u0259lledici \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259t k\u0259sb ed\u0259c\u0259k, kosmik silah sisteml\u0259ri v\u0259 kosmosdak\u0131 h\u0259rbi q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259r m\u00fch\u00fcm rol oynayacaq. M\u00fcharib\u0259 t\u0259xmin\u0259n iki v\u0259 ya \u00fc\u00e7 il davam ed\u0259c\u0259k, lakin Fridman bunun m\u0259hdud olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 II D\u00fcnya M\u00fcharib\u0259si kimi 20-ci \u0259srin \u00fcmumi m\u00fcharib\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259n \u00e7ox f\u0259rqli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yaz\u0131b. Fridman iddia edir ki, bu, m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259d\u0259 i\u015ftirak ed\u0259n b\u00fct\u00fcn \u0259sas q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259rin n\u00fcv\u0259 silah\u0131na malik olmas\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 olacaq v\u0259 d\u0259qiq silahlar\u0131n t\u0259tbiqi z\u0259r\u0259ri minimuma endir\u0259c\u0259k. T\u0259xmini hesablamalara g\u00f6r\u0259, \u0259halinin itkisi 50.000-\u0259 yax\u0131n insan olacaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


M\u00fcharib\u0259d\u0259n sonrak\u0131 d\u00f6vr<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


M\u00fcharib\u0259d\u0259n sonra, 2050-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259 AB\u015e, 2060-c\u0131 ill\u0259r\u0259d\u0259k davam ed\u0259c\u0259k m\u00fcharib\u0259d\u0259n sonrak\u0131 bumu ya\u015fayacaq. \u0130qtisadi bum m\u00fcdafi\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259rinin artmas\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 ba\u015f ver\u0259c\u0259k v\u0259 bu, yeni texnologiyalar\u0131n inki\u015faf\u0131na g\u0259tirib \u00e7\u0131xaracaq. Birlikd\u0259 bu, k\u0259skin iqtisadi art\u0131ma v\u0259 Amerikan\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyada t\u0259sirinin artmas\u0131na t\u00f6hf\u0259 ver\u0259c\u0259k. Bundan \u0259lav\u0259, 2000-ci ill\u0259rin bebibumerl\u0259r n\u0259slinin k\u00fctl\u0259vi \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 t\u0259qa\u00fcd\u0259 \u00e7\u0131xmas\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 ortaya \u00e7\u0131xan iqtisadi probleml\u0259r, bu n\u0259slin sonuncu n\u00fcmay\u0259nd\u0259si yoxa \u00e7\u0131xanda aradan qalxacaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Birl\u0259\u015fmi\u015f \u015etatlar h\u0259rbi v\u0259 siyasi bax\u0131mdan \u0259sas dominant g\u00fcc olaraq qalacaq v\u0259 kosmosu t\u0259dqiq etm\u0259y\u0259 davam ed\u0259c\u0259k. Bu arada T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 \u00f6z t\u0259sir dair\u0259sinin b\u00f6y\u00fck hiss\u0259sini qoruyub saxlayacaq, baxmayaraq ki, onun faktiki imperiyas\u0131 m\u0259\u011flubiyy\u0259t n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 getdikc\u0259 daha sabitl\u0259\u015f\u0259c\u0259k, Yaponiya is\u0259 t\u0259sir dair\u0259sini itir\u0259c\u0259k. M\u00fcharib\u0259nin sonunda AB\u015e-\u0131n dikt\u0259si il\u0259 imzalanm\u0131\u015f sazi\u015f\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, m\u0259\u011flub T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 v\u0259 Yaponiyaya qar\u015f\u0131 yeni h\u0259rbi m\u0259hdudiyy\u0259tl\u0259r t\u0259tbiq edil\u0259c\u0259k, baxmayaraq ki, onlar\u0131n q\u0259bulu praktikada qeyri-m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olacaq v\u0259 sad\u0259c\u0259 olaraq bu, \u201cqalib t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n m\u0259\u011flub olanlar\u0131n zorla al\u00e7ald\u0131lmas\u0131 olacaq\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Bu arada, m\u00fcharib\u0259d\u0259ki q\u0259l\u0259b\u0259 n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 Pol\u015fan\u0131n n\u00fcfuzu \u201cPol\u015fa Bloku\u201d hesab\u0131na artacaq. \u00d6lk\u0259nin infrastrukturu v\u0259 iqtisadiyyat\u0131 m\u0259hv edils\u0259 d\u0259, Pol\u015fa bu geni\u015fl\u0259nmi\u015f \u201cPol\u015fa Bloku\u201d sferas\u0131ndan \u00f6z iqtisadiyyat\u0131n\u0131 b\u0259rpa etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn istifad\u0259 ed\u0259c\u0259k. Gec-tez AB\u015e \u201cPol\u015fa Bloku\u201dnun g\u00fccl\u0259nm\u0259sin\u0259 g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259kd\u0259 potensial t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259 kimi reaksiya ver\u0259c\u0259k v\u0259 Avropada Pol\u015fa hegemonlu\u011funun qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 almaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ke\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259ni T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 il\u0259 yenid\u0259n birl\u0259\u015fm\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7al\u0131\u015facaq, el\u0259c\u0259 d\u0259 B\u00f6y\u00fck Britaniya il\u0259. H\u0259m\u00e7inin, AB\u015e kosmosdan h\u0259rbi m\u0259qs\u0259dl\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn istifad\u0259y\u0259 f\u0259al \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131xacaq…<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Bu fikrl\u0259r C. Fridman\u0131n «N\u00f6vb\u0259ti 100 il» adl\u0131 kitab\u0131ndan al\u0131nt\u0131lard\u0131r. Lakin dey\u0259 bil\u0259r\u0259m ki, AB\u015e deyildiyi kimi q\u00fcdr\u0259tli deyil v\u0259 bu g\u00fcn \u00f6z h\u0259rbi hegemonlu\u011funu d\u0259nizl\u0259rd\u0259 qoruya bilib. \u00d6lk\u0259d\u0259 daxili borclar h\u0259r saniy\u0259 art\u0131r v\u0259 art\u0131q dollar \u0259skinaslar\u0131 bel\u0259, borcla \u00e7ap edilir. \u00c7\u00fcnki bu g\u00fcn d\u00fcnya maliyy\u0259 d\u00f6vriyy\u0259sind\u0259 972 mlrd. dollar i\u015ftirak edir. AB\u015e \u00dcDM-d\u0259 17,4 trilyon dollar\u0131 da \u0259lav\u0259 ets\u0259k, g\u00fclm\u0259li bir m\u0259nz\u0259r\u0259 il\u0259 \u00fczl\u0259\u015f\u0259rik. 8133.5 ton q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n qiym\u0259ti ne\u00e7\u0259y\u0259dir?<\/p>\n\n\n\n


B\u0259zil\u0259ri dollar\u0131n dayan\u0131ql\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 AB\u015e-\u0131n g\u00fccl\u00fc s\u0259naye v\u0259 k\u0259nd t\u0259s\u0259rr\u00fcfat\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259si olmas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


\u018fslind\u0259 bu sah\u0259d\u0259 d\u0259 v\u0259ziyy\u0259t d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fcz kimi deyil. Haz\u0131rda AB\u015e iqtisadiyyat\u0131n\u0131n 80%-ni xidm\u0259tl\u0259r, c\u0259mi 20%-ni is\u0259 s\u0259naye v\u0259 k\u0259nd t\u0259s\u0259rr\u00fcfat\u0131 t\u0259\u015fkil edir. Bu sah\u0259d\u0259 is\u0259 \u0259rzaq sat\u0131\u015f\u0131nda birinciliyini saxlaya bilib. Bu g\u00fcn import eksportu \u00fcst\u0259l\u0259mi\u015f durumdad\u0131. AB\u015e h\u0259r \u015feyi borc, nisy\u0259 yolu il\u0259 al\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


AB\u015e d\u00f6vriyy\u0259si b\u00f6y\u00fck oldu\u011funa g\u00f6r\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259b olunan borclar\u0131 \u00f6d\u0259m\u0259kl\u0259 \u00f6z etibar\u0131n\u0131 sars\u0131lmaqdan qoruya bilir. H\u0259r ke\u00e7\u0259n g\u00fcn \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn AB\u015e 3,84 mlrd.dollar borclanmaqdad\u0131r. \u00dcmumi d\u00f6vl\u0259t borcu 17,966 trilyon dollar, m\u00fcxt\u0259lif \u015f\u0259xsl\u0259r\u0259 12,889 trilyon dollar, daxili borclar is\u0259 5.076 trilyon dollar t\u0259\u015fkil edir…<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Y\u0259ni C. Fridman\u0131n kitab\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n t\u00fcrk qorxusu ortaya qoyulub. \u0130slam d\u00f6vl\u0259tl\u0259rinin bir araya g\u0259lm\u0259si \u0259ndi\u015f\u0259si ortaya qoyulub. Amma Xeyir v\u0259 \u015e\u0259rin m\u00fcbariz\u0259sind\u0259 q\u0259l\u0259b\u0259 T\u00fcrk\u00fcn olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 Fridman da yax\u015f\u0131 bilir…<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


Xaqani \u018fd\u0259bo\u011flu
AVMV\u0130B M\u0259tbuat Xidm\u0259ti<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Corc Fridman Ameriakan\u0131n apar\u0131c\u0131 beyin m\u0259rk\u0259zl\u0259rind\u0259n biri say\u0131lan Strafor qlobal t\u0259hlil v\u0259 m\u0259lumat m\u0259rk\u0259zinin icra\u00e7\u0131 direktoru olub. Startfor xarici siyas\u0259t v\u0259 k\u0259\u015ffiyyat sah\u0259sind\u0259 ara\u015fd\u0131rmalar<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":76899,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-76897","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-arasdirma"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76897","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=76897"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76897\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":76942,"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76897\/revisions\/76942"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/76899"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=76897"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=76897"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fedai.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=76897"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}